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Looking Ahead to 2020

Moderator: William B. Rouse SM '70, PhD '72
David Lehman Robert Skinner, Jr. Heinz Stoewer Joel Moses PhD '67: June 16, 2009; Running Time: 1:29:12

About the Lecture

About the Lecture

Real-world practitioners of systems engineering/engineering systems describe how the young discipline has shaped their very large enterprises.

For the past 10 years, David Lehman has been incorporating key systems engineering ideas within MITRE Corporation. Successes include getting project leaders to think about engineering solutions in the context of political and economic organization, and learning how to communicate these solutions better. MITRE has talked to defense acquisition managers in the field to extract data and create models that get disseminated to other managers. But Lehman is disappointed that Defense Department acquisition methods are still large-scale, and unresponsive to swiftly changing situations. He’d like to show program managers how “to step outside what they’ve been taught,” and create incentives for doing the right things rather than “sticking with regulations.”

Robert Skinner, Jr. wonders if engineering systems approaches can help with some pressing questions: the way to mix transportation and land use decisions in urban areas, for instance, or government pricing strategies for surface transport. One nettlesome issue involves the right scope of analysis, says Skinner. Should researchers be looking at the components of the transportation system, or the whole enterprise? “As we move downward, uncertainty increases and the role of social systems and social science enters into it; politics upper and lower case becomes more significant.” And he adds, “We’re sorely lacking in analogs in the policy world to transmit complex engineering concepts. If analysis gets too far out ahead of the public’s and decision-makers’ ability to absorb it, it all comes to naught.”

“Why are so many complex systems behind schedule and over budget?” asks Heinz Stoewer. A single line of code missing can cause system collapse, says Stoewer. And big problems can flow from human shortcomings in calculations, accounting or risk management. Stoewer believes another reason for failure is that program managers and systems engineers “are too process focused,” and not well enough aligned. They may lack sufficient depth in the key discipline of their projects, leading to faulty product design or production. To improve the chances of success, Stoewer emphasizes the importance of early phases: “I can tell you two dozen programs in trouble because they’re…making enormous efforts trying to get things right when they’re almost done.”

By 2020, Joel Moses hopes that engineering systems will be recognized “as having made significant contributions” to health care, energy, environment, financial services and the military. To achieve such an impact, the field should focus on “maybe the key issue” of system architecture. Each engineering field thinks of architecture in different ways and groups must communicate better with each other. Moses believes educators should teach “what makes for a good system architect,” and that “systems thinking is important, but not enough.” A good system architect sees things holistically. Moses notes as well, “the difference between designing a one-off versus a family of systems.”

Lecture Details

Location: Wong Auditorium

“Risk management is a very important element. If you do it right, it can make enormous contributions to avoiding failures. Done wrong, it becomes bookkeeping and is useless.”

Heinz Stoewer

About the Speakers

Moderator: William B. Rouse SM '70, PhD '72

Executive Director, Tennenbaum Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology
Professor, College of Computing and School of Industrial and Systems Engineering

William Rouse has written hundreds of articles and book chapters, and has authored many books, including most recently People and Organizations: Explorations of Human-Centered Design (Wiley, 2007),Essential Challenges of Strategic Management (Wiley, 2001) and the award-winning Don’t Jump to Solutions (Jossey-Bass, 1998). He is editor of Enterprise Transformation: Understanding and Enabling Fundamental Change (Wiley, 2006), co-editor of Organizational Simulation: From Modeling & Simulation to Games & Entertainment (Wiley, 2005), co-editor of the best-selling Handbook of Systems Engineering and Management (Wiley, 1999, 2008), and editor of the eight-volume series Human/Technology Interaction in Complex Systems (Elsevier).

Rouse is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, as well as a fellow of four professional societies - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science, and the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. He has received the Joseph Wohl Outstanding Career Award and the Norbert Wiener Award from the IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society; a Centennial Medal and a Third Millennium Medal from IEEE; the Best Article Award from INCOSE, and the O. Hugo Schuck Award from the American Automation Control Council.

David Lehman

Senior Vice President and General Manager, The MITRE Corporation's Command and Control Center

David H. Lehman Lehman oversees the The MITRE Corporation's Command and Control Center's work and business operations for its Department of Defense (DoD) sponsors. Previously, Lehman was MITRE's senior vice president for information and technology. He also served as vice president and chief technology officer from 1997 to 2001. He has 30 years of experience in the intelligence community, the U.S. imagery system, and information management systems.

Lehman is a member of the Army/Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Army/DARPA) Senior Advisory Group and a member of the Board of Directors of the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association (AFCEA) International. He received a bachelor's in geology from Williams College in 1974.

Robert Skinner, Jr.

Executive Director, Transportation Research Board (TRB), National Academies of Sciences and Engineering

Robert E. Skinner, Jr. has been the Executive Director of the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering since 1994. TRB is a non-profit organization that promotes transportation innovation by sponsoring professional meetings and publications, administering applied research programs, and conducting policy studies.

Prior to joining TRB in 1983, Skinner was a Vice President of Alan M. Voorhees and Associates, a transportation consulting firm, for which he managed the firm's activities in the eastern United States. Skinner earned his bachelor's degree in civil engineering from the University of Virginia in 1969 with high distinction. He earned a master’s degree in civil engineering from MIT in 1971. A registered professional engineer, Skinner received the James Laurie Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers.

Heinz Stoewer

Distinguished Visiting Scientist, Jet Propulsion Lab and Chair Emeritus, TU Delft

Heinz Stoewer holds advanced degrees in technical physics, economics and systems management from German and U.S. universities. Since 1962 he has worked in various systems, project and management positions in German and US industry (Boelkow/EADS and MDAC/Boeing). In 1973 he joined the Technical Centre of the European Space Agency (ESA) as the first Programme Manager Spacelab and later founded the Agency's Systems Engineering and Programmatics Department. In 1990 he became Managing Director Progammes of the newly created German Space Agency (DARA GmbH). After retirement from DARA, Stoewer founded the Space Associates GmbH, a company consulting internationally on space systems, education and strategic topics.

Stoewer is a Fellow and Past President of the International Council for Systems Engineering (INCOSE), emeritus member of the Board of Trustees of the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) and a past chair of its Engineering Sciences Section. He is a member of several international journals editorial boards, lectures at universities in Europe and abroad, has authored numerous scientific/technical publications and holds prestigious German and international awards.

Joel Moses PhD '67

Institute Professor and Professor of Computer Science and Engineering and Engineering Systems Acting Director, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development

Joel Moses has served as MIT’s Provost, Dean of Engineering, Head of the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Associate Head of EECS, and Associate Director of the Laboratory for Computer Science. He was also instrumental in the conceptualization of a joint engineering and management graduate program, which is now the System Design and Management Program, and in creating the Engineering Systems Division.

Moses is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, and of the IEEE. He led the development of the Macsyma system for algebraic formula manipulation and is the co-developer of the Knowledge-Based Systems concept in Artificial Intelligence. His current interests include the complexity and flexibility of engineering systems, algebraic formula manipulation, and knowledge-based systems.

Moses received his undergraduate degree and master’s degrees in mathematics from Columbia University, and his doctorate in mathematics from MIT.