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U.S.-Iran Relations

Moderator: Barry Posen
Suzanne DiMaggio Jimi Walsh Stephen Heintz: May 5, 2009; Running Time: 1:34:45

About the Lecture

About the Lecture

While Barack Obama has rejected the Bush administration’s harsh stance toward Iran, panelists warn that we’re far from the start of fruitful relations, and that achieving real diplomacy will paradoxically require both patience and a sense of urgency.

Suzanna DiMaggio observes the U.S. seeking “areas of common interest and managing areas of profound differences” with Iran, moving “well beyond a change in language” to concrete and profound shifts in policy, such as recognizing Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear program; curtailing support for Iranian opposition groups; and reaching out for Iran’s cooperation on Afghanistan. DiMaggio says Afghanistan may prove key to building the foundations of a relationship, since Iran is concerned about halting the spread of violent fundamentalism and curtailing drug trafficking. The way forward, she suggests, involves approaching Iran in a “direct and sustained way to clarify U.S. intentions in the region while building confidence and trust,” which “will require each side to exercise great restraint,” and an acceptance that there will be frequent setbacks.

Jim Walsh describes recent U.S. actions toward Iran as “scene setting,” with such moves as dropping preconditions for discussing Iran’s nuclear program, and discouraging Israel from contemplating a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But “Iran is cautious,” with its government demonstrating “a certain schizophrenia” -- hopefulness and curiosity about Barack Obama, but skepticism about the U.S. pursuing substantive change. Tactical cooperation with Iran around Afghanistan and the drug trade appears to Walsh a better starting point for discussions than Iran’s nuclear program. He says, “Barack Obama may speak with a nicer tone, offer greater incentives, but if at the end of the day, he insists on no centrifuges, we will end up at the same outcome as before.” Substantial movement will take months, and all the while, Iran will continue to build centrifuges. Walsh sees a dilemma for the president: he must attempt to build confidence by moving slowly, but the “best chance for success is if Obama acts early and boldly while he still has the power of public opinion behind him domestically and internationally…It won’t last forever.

Stephen Heintz points out that “Iran is in the center of a set of issues of direct national interest to the U.S.,” including Middle East peace, the war on terror, regional stability and oil. The problem is that in trying to find points of intersection with Iran, each nation “has very little knowledge of the other,” as well as bad memories (the hostage crisis of 1979, the U.S. support of the Shah). This “only reinforces a relationship based on suspicion.” While Barack Obama “has done a superb job at creating different atmospherics,” there is a huge debate underway within policy circles, as different groups jockey to shape Iran policy. Heintz doesn’t expect much movement until after the Iranian elections, but hopes that the restart of multilateral talks, and discussions about regional security and drug trade will help free both nations of the “paranoia and fear” that’s built up over time.

Lecture Details

Location: NE30

“We need to approach Iran in a direct and sustained way to clarify US intentions in the region while building confidence and trust. Such an approach will require each side to exercise great restraint. Distrust will continue, there will be frequent setbacks, but it could lead to greater mutual understanding and a learned capacity to make progress on some of the most pressing issues in the region.”

Suzanna DiMaggio

About the Speakers

Moderator: Barry Posen

Ford International Professor of Political Science
Director, CIS Security Studies Program, MIT

Barry R. Posen serves on the Executive Committee of Seminar XXI, an educational program for senior military officers, government officials and business executives in the national security policy community. He has written two books, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks and The Sources of Military Doctrine, which won two awards: The American Political Science Association's Woodrow Wilson Foundation Book Award, and Ohio State University's Edward J. Furniss Jr. Book Award.

Posen is also the author of numerous articles, including "The Case for Restraint," The American Interest, (November/December 2007) and “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony,” International Security, (Summer, 2003.) He has been a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow; Rockefeller Foundation International Affairs Fellow; Guest Scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow, Smithsonian Institution; and most recently, Transatlantic Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Posen's current research interests include U.S. national security policy, the security policy of the European Union, the organization and employment of military force, great power intervention into civil conflicts, and innovation in the U.S. Army, 1970-1980.

Suzanne DiMaggio

Director, Global Policy Studies and Initiatives, Asia Society

Suzanne DiMaggio joined the Asia Society in 2007, where she is leading projects on Iran, Burma, water and security in Asia. Previously, she was the Executive Director of Global Policy Programs at the United Nations Association of the USA, the nation's largest grassroots foreign policy organization and leading center for policy research and public outreach on the United Nations and global issues. In that capacity, she oversaw all aspects of the Association's policy studies programs and activities. She directed UNA-USA's "track two" dialogues with partner institutes in the Middle East and Northeast Asia on a range of issues, including terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, regional security, multilateral peace and humanitarian operations and UN reform.

Jimi Walsh

Research Associate, Security Studies Program, MIT

Jim Walsh's research focus is international security, and specifically, weapons of mass destruction and terrorism. Walsh has testified before the United States Senate on the issue of nuclear terrorism and chaired the Harvard University International Working Group on Radiological Terrorism. Among his current projects are two series of dialogues on nuclear issues, one with representatives from North Korea and one with leading figures in Iran.

Since 2001, Walsh has given some 700 media interviews, including more than 300 appearances on CNN. His comments and analysis have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, and numerous other publications. His most recent publications include “Iran's Nuclear Program: Motivations, Consequences, and Options” in Terrorist Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation: Strategies for Overlapping Dangers (Academy of Political Science, 2007); “The Nuclear Weapons Danger” in A Muslim-Christian Study and Action Guide to the Nuclear Weapons Dange (Islamic Society of North America and the Churches' Center for Theology and Public Policy, 2007); and “Learning from Past Success: The NPT and the Future of Non-proliferation” for the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission chaired by Hans Blix (2006).

Before coming to MIT, Walsh was Executive Director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He was also a visiting scholar at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Walsh received his Ph.D from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Stephen Heintz

President, Rockefeller Brothers Fund

Stephen B. Heintz has held top leadership positions in both the nonprofit and public sectors. Until he joined the RBF on February 1, 2001, Heintz was Founding President of Demos, a public policy research and advocacy organization working to enhance the vitality of American democracy and promote more broadly shared prosperity. Prior to founding Demos, Heintz served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the EastWest Institute (EWI), where he worked on issues of economic reform, civil society development, and international security. Based in Prague, Czech Republic, from 1990 through 1997, Heintz worked extensively throughout Central and Eastern Europe and the New Independent States. Prior to joining the EastWest Institute, he was a policy analyst and cabinet official in the State of Connecticut, where he served as Commissioner of the Department of Economic Development and Commissioner of the Department of Income Maintenance (Social Welfare). In 1988, he helped draft and secure passage by Congress of "The Family Support Act," the first major effort to reform the nation's welfare system.

He has published articles in The International Herald Tribune, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal Europe and several books and journals. He is a magna cum laude graduate of Yale University.