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How Would Climate Change Influence Society in the 21st Century? (Panel)

Moderator: Rajendra K. Pachauri
Akimasa Sumi John Reilly Adil Najam CE '96, PhD '01 Howard Herzog '74, SM '75, CHE '80 William Moomaw PhD '65 Andreas Fischlin Michael Golay: January 29, 2008; Running Time: 1:11:56

About the Lecture

About the Lecture

Rajendra K. Pachauri leads fellow members of the Nobel Prize-winning IPCC in a remarkable public session of soul-searching. Now that the IPCC has helped make climate change a signal issue of our times, what next?

John Reilly wonders whether the IPCC should be celebrating any success, given that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise in spite of all the comprehensive study. Given the “dismal outcome so far,” it’s important that the IPCC “avoid the complacency that comes with big awards,” and that “much, all of the work is still there to be done.”

“It’s probably time for sunset, Michael Golay suggests.” Now that the IPCC has succeeded in establishing climate change as “a reality among at least the chattering classes,” the next step is actually a social question, one that is much more difficult than coming up with new technologies. “We’re really talking about interfering with markets, and doing this in a way that doesn’t become simply another vehicle for creating profits for special interests….”

William Moomaw believes IPCC reports have made possible policy and corporate innovations that would have been unthinkable only a decade ago, and the IPCC should continue to serve in an advisory capacity to the world, laying out the technological and economic possibilities. Says Moomaw, “We got off to a bad start. We talked about global warming as being an environmental issue when in fact global warming is a symptom of maldevelopment."

The IPCC “should continue as the voice of science and help a well-informed society make tough decisions,” declares Andreas Fischlin . This will mean “facing the issue of sustainability in the context of climate change to an extent many of us won’t like.” Research challenges in developing nations may impede efforts to “optimize the IPCC’s work and help in the whole issue of moving toward a more sustainable world.”

Akimasa Sumi believes IPCC should continue to have a powerful role in the future, because the “climate change issue is driven by science.” He proposes refining climate models in the hope of reducing uncertainty around such matters as the role of aerosols and clouds. He says the focus must now be on adaptation and mitigation, particularly over a 30-year time scale.

The IPCC established its relevance because it drew a line between being policy relevant and policy prescriptive, says Adil Najam. Now, “we need to claim victory on understanding the mechanics of the science and stop debating.” The next step must mean “focusing not on the scope of the problem, but on potential for solutions.”

Should the IPCC attempt to become more prescriptive, believes Howard Herzog, “it would lose respect.” In his years with the organization, “anytime we got into policy prescriptive areas, when we got close to the line, tensions rose, arguments intensified, we lost consensus.” He thinks it’s important to continue the IPCC’s work, because the science will change, and we need a “broker out there to summarize where science is on critical issues.”

Lecture Details

Location: 32-123

About the Speakers

Moderator: Rajendra K. Pachauri

Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Nobel Peace Prize (IPCC)

Rajendra Pachauri was elected Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2002. He has been involved in the work of the IPCC since its Second Assessment Report in 1995, as a Lead Author. He was then Vice-President of the IPCC during the Third Assessment Report.

Pachauri has been the head of TERI, The Energy and Resources Institute, since its establishment 25 years ago. TERI focuses on scientific and technological research and strategic thinking in the fields of energy, environment, forestry, biotechnology, conservation of natural resources and sustainable development.

Pachauri was awarded the Padma Bhushan by the President of India in January 2001, one of India’s highest civilian awards. He was also awarded the “Officier De La Légion D’Honneur” by the Government of France in 2006.

Pachauri was a Research Fellow at The World Bank, Washington, DC in 1990. He also served as adviser to the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in the fields of energy and sustainable management of natural resources from 1994 till 1999. At the international level, he has been President of the Asian Energy Institute since 1992.

Pachauri earned an M.S. in Industrial Engineering, a Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering, and a Ph.D. in Economics from North Carolina State University.

Akimasa Sumi

General Director, Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability, Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science, The University of Tokyo

John Reilly

Co-director, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Senior Lecturer, MIT Sloan

Energy, environmental, and agricultural economist John Reilly focuses on understanding the role of human activities as a contributor to global environmental change and the effects of environmental change on society and the economy. A key element of his work is the integration of economic models of the global economy as it represents human activity with models of biophysical systems including the ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial vegetation. By understanding the complex interactions of human society with our planet, the goal is to aid in the design of policies that can effectively limit the contribution of human activity to environmental change, to facilitate adaptation to unavoidable change, and to understand the consequences of the deployment of large scale energy systems that will be needed to meet growing energy needs.

Adil Najam CE '96, PhD '01

Fredrick Pardee Professor of Global Policy and Director, Pardee Center for the Study of Long-Term Future, Boston University

Howard Herzog '74, SM '75, CHE '80

Principal Research Engineer, MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment
Program Manager, Carbon Sequestration Initiative

William Moomaw PhD '65

Professor of International Environmental Policy;
Director of the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

Andreas Fischlin

Head, Terrestrial Systems Group, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETHZ (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich)

Michael Golay

Professor, Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, MIT

Michael W. Golay has been at MIT since 1971. He is director of the Reactor Technology Course for Utility Executives and the Risk-Informed Operational Decision Management Course, both co-sponsored by MIT and the National Academy for Nuclear Training. Most recently he has focused his research and teaching upon improving nuclear power performance both in the United States and internationally, particularly through use of probabilistic and dynamic methods of analysis. He has also been an active advisor to governmental and industrial organizations, particularly concerning risk-informed regulation and nuclear non-proliferation.

Golay received his Ph.D. in nuclear engineering from Cornell University in 1969, and performed post-doctoral research at Rennselaer Polytechnic Institute. In 1980 he was a visiting researcher at Electricite de France. He has served on the INPO Advisory Council, the NRC's Research Review Committee, the DOE's TOPS Committee (on non-proliferation), and national laboratory and nuclear power plant oversight committees. He is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and of the American Nuclear Society.