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How Can We Improve Disaster Response?

Kenneth Oye Richard C. Larson SB '65, EE, SM, '67, PhD, '69 Yossi Sheffi SM '77, PhD '78: September 30, 2005; Running Time: 1:58:28

About the Lecture

About the Lecture

Even if the U.S. draws the right lessons from Hurricane Katrina, panelists suggest, the nation may still be caught short in the next disaster.

In some areas of government, Kenneth Oye points out, “weaknesses can go on for a long time because you don’t confront a reality test. Katrina was a reality test with implications for (FEMA) that could not be ignored.” This agency had functioned quite well in prior administrations, he continues, having learned from mistakes following Hurricane Andrew more than a decade ago. But then came 9/11 and the incorporation of FEMA into the Department of Homeland Security. Says Oye, “With its (new) focus on terrorism, middle management people with experience in natural disasters left, and were replaced with patronage appointments…It became a hollow agency.” Oye worries about disasters “not in the play book, where we project and guess” such as nuclear or biological terrorism.

Richard Larson grades the effectiveness of responses to such disasters as the Oklahoma City bombing, the Tokyo subway sarin attack, the Bhopal gas explosion, and summarizes some lessons from these experiences: preposition supplies and equipment; anticipate lots of volunteers and off-duty personnel, and set up rules for their deployment; implement “data trawling” of 911 calls in case “independent reports turn out to be really one massive thing;” reduce traffic congestion on phones and radios; and expect tradeoffs around evacuation decisions. But, notes Larsen, “as important as an improved hurricane response is, it’s probably more important to think about the next flu pandemic.”

Yossi Sheffi has seen organizations splutter and fail after catastrophe strikes. The British government’s initial response to a 2001 outbreak of foot and mouth disease made things worse, he recalls. When it “closed its entire countryside to instill confidence, the damage to tourism was 2.5 times the damage to the agricultural sector.” This kind of overreaction is typical of high impact, low probability events, says Sheffi, so “developing resilience to withstand big shocks is an organizational issue.” Just as many global corporations build redundancy in inventory, and beef up communications and security, national prevention must involve “process tightening” and investing in infrastructure, from achieving energy independence to shoring up leaky water supplies. “Prepare for the next one, not the last one,” Sheffi counsels. “It won’t be coming with three days warning next time.”

Lecture Details

Location: Kirsch Auditorium
Stata Center

“(on FEMA) With its (new) focus on terrorism, middle management people with experience in natural disasters left, and were replaced with patronage appointments…It became a hollow agency. ”

Kenneth Oye

About the Speakers

Kenneth Oye

Associate Professor, Political Science and Engineering Systems

Oye has served on the faculties of the Kennedy School at Harvard University, the University of California, Princeton University, and Swarthmore College. He received the 1998 MIT Graduate Student Council Outstanding Teaching Award in Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts for his research seminar in international relations and the 2003 MIT Technology and Policy Program Faculty Appreciation Award for his teaching and advising in science, technology and public policy.

He holds a B.A. in Political Science and Economics with Highest Honors from Swarthmore College and a Ph.D in Political Science with the Chase Dissertation Prize from Harvard University.

Richard C. Larson SB '65, EE, SM, '67, PhD, '69

Mitsui Professor of Engineering Systems and Civil and Environmental Engineering

Richard Larson is author, co-author or editor of six books and author of over 75 scientific articles, primarily in the fields of technology-enabled education, urban service systems (esp. emergency response systems), queueing, logistics and workforce planning. His first book, Urban Police Patrol Analysis (MIT Press, 1972) was awarded the Lanchester Prize of the Operations Research Society of America (ORSA).

Larson is currently President-elect of INFORMS, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. He has served as consultant to the World Bank, Coca-Cola, Johnson Controls, EDS, United Artists Cinemas, Union Carbide Corp., and the Rand Corporation and is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.

From 1995 to mid 2003, Larson served as Director of MIT's CAES, Center for Advanced Educational Services, which created the Singapore MIT Alliance. He was also the creator of PIVoT -- the web-based the Physics Interactive Video Tutor; and MIT World.

Yossi Sheffi SM '77, PhD '78

Director, Engineering Systems Division
Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems
Director, MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics

Yossi Sheffi is an expert in systems optimization, risk analysis and supply chain management. He is the founder and the director of MIT’s Master of Engineering in Logistics degree. In 2003 he launched the MIT-Zaragoza program, building a new logistics university in Spain based on a unique international academia, government and industry partnership.

Sheffi has authored many journal publications and two books, including The Resilient Enterprise:Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage (MIT Press, October 2005).

He obtained his B.Sc. from the Technion in Israel in 1975, his S.M. from MIT in 1977, and Ph.D. from MIT in 1978.

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