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Constructing a New Liberal Iraq

Robert E. Looney John Tirman: April 4, 2005; Running Time: 1:40:09

About the Lecture

About the Lecture

Iraq’s oil reserves are the second largest in the world, yet according to both colloquium speakers, the country’s economic prospects are quite dim. They also agree that bungled U.S. reforms share some of the blame for Iraq’s bleak outlook. Robert Looney believes that Washington dearly wants to “make Iraq a showcase for other countries in the Middle East, by showing how a successful market economy could improve standards of living,” among other goals. But policy makers have gone at the problem the wrong way, pushing for immediate outside investment in and ownership of Iraqi assets. “If you were a freshman looking at an economics book and had to write a paper overnight, this is pretty much what you’d come up with.” Instead, reforms have “created unemployment and insecurity” and led to a shadow economy riddled with corruption that seems unlikely to budge for years. Among his scenarios: Iraq might go the way of Iran, becoming a “pragmatic theocracy;” “muddle through” to become “a Nigeria of the Middle East;” or get stuck in a vicious circle, and become a “Yugoslavia with oil.” John Tirman says that “economic growth after 15 years of decline is essential to winning over the Iraqi people,” but the U.S. free market schemes are deepening the distrust Iraqis have in economic reforms, as they observe deals primarily transacted with outsiders. Tirman says this rapid privatization leads to more insecurity, and that if you “want to stabilize the economy, give money to people to live on and make them feel they have a future.” He sees a strong likelihood of civil war, if not between Baathists and Shi’as then between Kurds and Shi’as.

Lecture Details

Location: 1-190

About the Speakers

Robert E. Looney

Professor of National Security Affairs, and Associate Chairman of Instruction, Naval Postgraduate School

Looney's research interests include economic intelligence and development, particularly in the Middle East. He has published 20 books, and more than 200 articles. He has served as a developmental economist at the Stanford Research Institute, and as a consultant for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Looney received his B.A. and Ph.D. from the University of California, Davis.

John Tirman

Executive Director, Center for International Studies, MIT

Tirman is an author or editor of six books on international security issues. He previously served as program director of the Social Science Research Council, and as executive director of the Winston Foundation for World Peace. He received the U.N. Association's Human Rights Award.

About the Host

About the Host

Department of Urban Studies and Planning

The Department of Urban Studies and Planning (DUSP) is a department within the School of Architecture and Planning at MIT. It is comprised of four specialization areas (also referred to as Program Groups): City Design and Development; Environmental Policy and Planning; Housing, Community and Economic Development; and the International Development Group. There are also three cross-cutting areas of study: Transportation Planning and Policy, Urban Information Systems (UIS), and Regional Planning.