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Forecasting Markets: The Capital Update for 2005

Moderator: Robert Crowley
Carol Vallone Daphne Dufresne Oscar Jazdowski T. L. Stebbins: January 20, 2005; Running Time: 1:28:37

About the Lecture

About the Lecture

Not a whiff of irrational exuberance escapes from this panel, veterans all of the economic rollercoaster of the 1990s. Carol Vallone, CEO of a well-capitalized, web-based higher learning company, has words of caution and advice on how to build a company to the pre-IPO stage. “Be a category killer in your primary market,” she counsels, so don’t disperse energies into other markets. Focus not on new customers but on “how many customers you can keep.” Also, it’s not the partners with deep pockets who matter the most, but “deep partners” from whom you can borrow technologies, and who lend visibility.

Daphne Dufresne deems 2004 something of a comeback year for venture capital funding. Ninety three companies raised $11 billion in public market – almost half of those companies in information technology, with life sciences a close second. Her predictions the coming year: “Technology will still drive the majority of investment dollars” and a “growing economy will foster open IPO markets and merger and acquisition opportunities.”

Oscar Jazdowski detects a momentum shift – as investors become more confident, debt financing of young, emerging companies will grow. He sees “a phenomenal injection of capital” in businesses with no revenues, and frets about a building debt bubble, “precursor of disaster to come.” Yet he remains bullish on 2005, predicting an 11% increase in the Dow and a 30% increase for the tech heavy NASDAQ.

T.L. Stebbins anticipates a weakening dollar, broadly affecting the economy: “This is getting to a point where people will not continue to invest foreign currencies into the U.S. market.” In spite of massive tax cuts, the U.S. experienced only a “tepid recovery.” Expect higher interest rates, says Stebbins, and economic growth “moderated by financial constraints and a volatile international situation.”

Lecture Details

Location: Kresge Auditorium

“Sarbanes-Oxley is like the Y2K phenomenon. In two years times when all the rules are finally embedded in American culture, the lawyers and CPAs will ask, ‘What do we do next?’”

Oscar Jazdowski

About the Speakers

Moderator: Robert Crowley

President, Massachusetts Technology Development Corporation (MTDC)

Bob Crowley was elected President of MTDC in November 2002. Prior to that, he was its Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer. Crowley is an experienced venture capital investor in early-stage technology companies. A former Chairman of the MIT Enterprise Forum of Cambridge, Crowley is also a Chairman of the Smaller Business Association of New England (SBANE) Educational Center. Crowley has served as director of a number of companies including Optical Micro Systems, Inc., Aspen Technology, Inc., MultiLink, Inc., Pacer Infotech, Inc., and Endogen, Inc.

Crowley has spent most of his professional life in finance, initially as a commercial lender with Shawmut Bank and Neponset Valley Bank & Trust Company, and, for more than 23 years, as a venture capital investor with MTDC. He earned a B.A. from Fairfield University and an M.B.A. from Boston College .

Carol Vallone

President and Chief Executive Office, WebCT

Daphne Dufresne

Principal, Weston Presidio

Oscar Jazdowski

Senior Relationship Manager, Silicon Valley Bank

T. L. Stebbins

Head of U.S. Investment Canaccord/Adams

Prior to his position at Canaccord/Adams, T.L. Stebbins served as managing director and chairman of investment banking at Adams Harkness. Stebbins joined the firm in 1970 as a research analyst, and participated in the introduction of the New England Research Service. He also formalized the firm's Investment Banking function and created the company's Corporate Finance department from scratch.

Stebbins received a B.A. from Harvard College, and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.